December 2013 expiration Wrap-up

Updated: 12/24/13

Trades closed in the month of December:

# of Trades = 7

Total Profit = $10

# of Wins = 5 for $261, avg win = $52.20

# of Losses = 2 for -$251, avg loss = -$125.50

Total Risk = 1634

Total ROR = 0.6%

Avg Days in Trade = 15.7

Annualized Return = 14.9%

November 2013 Wrap-Up

12/1/13

Trades closed in the month of November:

# of Trades = 12
Total Profit = $627.50
# of Wins = 10 for $1239.50, avg win = $123.95
# of Losses = 2 for -$612, avg loss = $306
Total Risk = 3350
Total ROR = 19%
Avg Days in Trade = 7
Annualized Return = 8480%!!!

NTAP Earnings Play

11/13/31 -Closed

• Iron Condor, NTAP @41.23
• STO -1 Nov 43/44C 39/38P
• Credit = .37
• Risk =  63
• ROR = 58% in 2 days

11/15/13 Update:

• NTAP @41.15
• BTC +5 Nov 39P
• Debit = .01
• Net = $36, 56% in 2 days

ADBE High IV Rank

11/12/13 -Closed

ADBE has an IV Rank of 95% so we are looking for a vol contraction. We'll be entering a Dec IC with 38DTE. By tightening the call side slightly we can increase our credit, reduce our risk, and give the IC a slightly bearish bias.

• Iron Condor, ADBE @56.02
• STO Dec 57.5 C
• BTO Dec 60 C
• STO Dec 52.5 P
• STO Dec 50 P
• Credit = 1.20
• Risk = 130
• ROR = 92%
• BE = 51.30, 58.70

KSS Earnings Play

11/12/13 -Closed

KSS reports earnings on 11/14 before market open. The IV Rank is over 90% and the expected move of +/-2.83 by expiration is represented on the risk profile below. As you can see the break-even price levels are outside the expected move. NOV option vol should contract from 59% down to 28%.

• Iron Condor, KSS @57.33
• STO Nov 60 C (75% OTM)
• BTO Nov 62.5 C
• STO Nov 55 P (75% OTM)
• BTO Nov 52.5 P
• Credit = 0.72
• Risk = 178
• ROR = 40%
• BE = 54.28, 60.72

Update: 11/14/13

KSS opened -$4.65, ouch. Roll the puts and let the calls expire.

• Roll, KSS @54.18
• STO Dec 55/52.5P Nov 55/52.5P
• Credit = .17

Update: 12/18/13

• BTC Dec 55/52.5P @0.59
• Net = $30
• ROR = 17% in 36 days

RAX Earnings Play

11/11/13 -Closed

Here's an Iron Condor based on an earnings play in RAX.

The screen capture is from the morning after (cha-ching!) so ignore the P/L and volatility figures. The price slices represent the MMM of +/-5.29, while a volatility contraction of 75 points is expected (130% to 55%).

• Iron Condor, RAX @49.14
• STO -1 Nov 55 C (80% OTM)
• BTO +1 Nov 57.5 C
• STO -1 Nov 42.5 P (84% OTM)
• BTO +1 Nov 40 P
• Credit = 0.70
• Risk = 180
• ROR = 39% in 4 days

11/15/13 Update

Closed at 50% max profit.

• BTC Nov 42.5/40P @ .35
• Net = $35, 19% in 4 days

PCLN Earnings Play

11/5/13

This is an earnings play on PCLN. We got in a little early because the premium was so good. IV for the NOV2 weeklys is 78% and should drop to around 34% after earnings on 11/7. The expected move of 65 points by expiration is shown on the risk profile.

October 2013 Wrap-up

# of Trades = 5
Total Risk = 2584
Total Profit = $427
Total ROR = 16.5%

FB Earnings Play

10/29/31

FB earnings come out on 10/30 after market close. We are looking to place a non-bias iron condor that capitalizes on the expected volatility contraction. I accidentally placed this trade a day earlier than I intended, so we'll see if this makes a difference.

YELP Earnings Play

10/29/13

YELP earnings get reported today after market close.

LNKD Earnings Play

10/29/13

LNKD earnings come today right after market close, so we are looking to setup an earnings play.

UNH Debit Spread

10/17/13 -Closed

This is a post-earnings trade on UNH. After dropping this morning from yesterday's close of 75.19 we decided to buy into the slight pullback.

• Vertical Debit Spread, UNH @ 71.31
• BTO +1 Nov 67.5 C
• STO -1 Nov 70 C
• Debit = 1.95
• Risk = 195
• BE = 69.45
• ROR = 55 / 195 = 28%

Update: 11/14/13

• STC Nov 67.5/70C @2.45
• Net = $50
• ROR = 25% in 28 days

NFLX High IV Rank

10/10/13

This is a purely high IV play. With the 2-month IV Rank at 98%, the inflated premiums offer up a nice Iron Condor. Normally this type of trade is opened around the 1st of the month so there are 45 DTE (days to expiration), but at that time the IV was 15 points lower.

• Iron Condor, NFLX @ 305.80
• STO -1 Nov 390 Call
• BTO +1 Nov 400 Call
• STO -1 Nov 215 Put
• BTO +1 Nov 205 Put
• Credit = 1.47
• Risk = 853
• ROR = 147 / 853 = 17% in 36 days

PCLN Iron Condor

10/2/13

Today was our first meeting of the Humpday Traders.

This first trade started with a recommendation from Dinger.

PCLN @ 1067.00
STO NOV 1205 CALLS for a nice credit.
If you can't go naked or don't want to....you could consider:
STO NOV 1205 C and BTO NOV 1220 C for a solid credit.

After looking at the chart, we see that the current IV percentile is 50% compared to the past year, 77% for the past 4 months, and 100% for the past month. As a side note, TastyTrade is now referring to 'current IV percentile' as 'IV rank' in order to avoid the confusion with current IV. With the monthly IV rank at 100% we can cash in on the high premiums by add a credit Put spread to Dinger's Call spread to create an Iron Condor. The high IV rank also allows us to move farther OTM to the 90% strikes. This morning with PCLN @ 1056 I placed an order to sell an IC for $1.70.

• Iron Condor, PCLN @ 1056
• STO -1 Nov 1210 C
• BTO +1 Nov 1220 C
• STO -1 Nov 895 P
• BTO +1 Nov 885 P
• Credit = 1.70
• Risk = 830
• ROR = 170 / 830 = 20%